A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
